Gold breaking above 1345 was a sign for bulls to take out 1400 – the move was fairly quick with the yellow metal gaining almost 11% in just over a month. Most traders would have gone short keeping 1360 levels as the line in sand – Gold took off wiping out all resistances built up over past several years. Indeed a bull run!
Does Gold have more steam to reach higher – Buyers are well in control and will likely jump on any reversals. The daily and lower time-frames do not provide any significant references for analysis. This analysis is based on weekly time-frame which provides us with some excellent trading opportunities with very well defined risk:rewards. Trading is all about setting well defined risk and rewards based on technical levels. When the risk is lower than the reward, you are certain to make profits even when 50% of the trade setups work in your favor.
Gold Price at start of this week is just above 1400 and may very easily reach the 1433 level (Major resistances of 2013 and 2010). This could be a good place to short with very tight stoploss levels above. Retest and consolidation and of 1360-1345 levels will be expected which will allow for lower time-frame analysis and open up further trading setups.
Recommendation for this week:
Short XAUUSD @ 1432 (after a H1 reversal bar) with SL above 1440 for Targets 1400 and 1360.
We do not recommend Long trades at these levels even though all central banks have dovish tones. US-China trade dispute was one of the major driving factors for Gold longs. With G20 summit coming up during later part of the week, holding longs would be risk with no significant support expected on the downside until atleast 1345.